The percentage drop
The people who say $17.7K wasn't the bottom, like the use the argument that we need to drop by 84%, like we did in the last bear market.
But if you look at each bear market drop to the bottom, they keep getting a little less intense.
In fact, each cycle lessens in intensity.
Each bull cycle becomes less intense and has a less exponential run to ATH.
Each bear cycle becomes a little less intense in its crash.
In 2017: x109.
In 2021: x21.
2022: -74% (so far)
However, 2018 isn't painting the full picture...
While in 2022, we did have LUNA, Voyager, etc... accelerate the fear during the bear market. In 2018 we had an event that did more than just accelerate it. It was more than a black swan event, it artificially dumped a big chunk of the market, higher than the entire volume of the biggest exchanges.
It was the Hash Wars.
For those who aren't familiar with it, you basically had the very top Bitcoin whales like Ayre and Wright, buying hash rate for their Bitcoin forks.
These guys owned millions of Bitcoins, worth in the billions. And dumped them to fuel their miners and hash rate. At the same time Craig Wright was hoping to also tank the price of Bitcoin to $1k.
So what is the actual bottom of 2018?
If we remove Ayre and Wright's wallet dump, the natural bottom would much more likely be more around 76%-80%.
So the real pattern may actually be:
2022: -74% (so far)
What about the argument that the bear marker should be longer than this?
Some may even say "aren't we supposed to have a lengthening?
The lengthening actually refers more to bull markets. They keep getting much longer. But if you look at bear markets, they aren't changing as much. While the first one was significantly shorter than any other one and breaks the pattern, the last two have been getting a little shorter.
While it's hard to find a constant and a good metric to calculate sentiment, we can calculate a consistent metric with ATH to bottom.
2011: 162 days
2014: 409 days
2018: 363 days
2022: 219 days to 17K, or 316 days so far.
Now the argument that each bear market should be longer isn't very solid, since there hasn't been a really strong pattern.
Does pattern really matter?
Let's see who's gonna comment on just the title, and who actually read any of this.
Now I know a lot of people aren't actually gonna read any of this, and are gonna complain that markets don't always repeat themselves, and past doesn't necessarily dictate the future. Or that there's a lot of macros to take into consideration.
And they'd be right.
This post is just in response to many people I've seen saying that only a further bottom to $12K would repeat history, therefore it's what's going to happen. And also for people who like patterns.
My overall response is twofold:
-First, a bottom of $16K or higher would put us more in line with previous cycles. And the bear market doesn't even necessarily have to be longer.
-Second, these patterns are never exactly the same. No cycle has ever been identical to the previous one. And while the 4 year halving does seem to affect a pattern into the market, it hasn't been very consistent. There's always other factors, like macros, adoption, regulation, scams, coins tanking, or whales dumping.
So you can take patterns a little into consideration for the general long term cyclical movement, but not to time a bottom. And not to say whether we definitely hit the bottom already or not.
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